Need expert's view on this issue - Outlook for the year of 2010 for property market analysia.

To what I know property market is gradually picking up after mid 2009. Prices are going up too. As for 2010 hard to say as the RPGT will kick in.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the beginning of a first major bubble in the housing market in Malaysia.

Edward, I always see the term "property bubble". What does that mean actually? Was the meaning about escalating property prices that reach its boiling point, and burst? Was it something like in KLCC area where property prices are overly speculated, and drop deep down now.

Need advise.

Edward Chen wrote:
Personally, I'm looking forward to the beginning of a first major bubble in the housing market in Malaysia.1st? i thought it's going to be the 2nd.......

Chong and Co

I could live with a price escalation in property with some fundamental backing like limited supply or steady or improving yields.Unfortunately we have neither in the areas /countries that interest me so any price rise/bubble can only end in tears IMO...same as Nasdaq tech boom did,same as Nikkei stocks and Jap property did in 1990,same as Dubai did this /last year or same as the US bond market is likely to do this year ..the list goes on and on.It is a great shame that human beings are such greedy creatures and never learn from history....well the good news is that there is always a government near you(all countries are the same!!) that will bail you and your overpriced property out....so don't worry be happy...lol

Haven't really seen any bubble. So far there are still no bubble. We've seen economy taking a hit for various reasons. But we have yet to see housing market bubbling and then burst. Which was the 1st bubble burst Chiek Chong?

We can all argue whether we have or haven't had a bubble but at the end of the day the main question is whether a buyer can expect a respectable return following his purchase..whether that return be price appreciation or yield or a combo of the two.I say in the present environment that in numerous countries of the world we can expect neither yield nor price appreciation going further out.Due to the worldwide bailouts that have put a temporary false floor under the real estate markets in most countries(by having first home buyer grants,govt purchase of MBS ..the US govt from my knowledge essentially facilitates 9 out of 10 mortgages either directly or indirectly through Fannie or Freddie or Fed purchases of other MBS keeping int rates far lower than would be the case if they were NOT involved in the market place..)Anyway a false floor in my mind supporting the industry which will be exposed when they exit the programs in the US and Australia to name two places..anyway as govts struggle to continue this nonsense and ultimately are forced to withdraw their support ,whether that be in the real estate area directly or whether that be to stop guaranteeing loans etc etc ,property will be forced to stand up by itself.When govts exit the result will be like pricking a balloon and prices will fall back to earth as they will have to stand up by themselves and I fail to see how individuals (already laden with excessive debt) will be able to run with the ball by themselves.Once again we will need to see genuine returns on property etc to encourage purchases and in many countries and also areas within Malaysia that interest me (like KLCC) I do not think there is a compelling reason to purchase.In the case of KLCC the obvious oversupply and decreasing yield will continue to expose a weak market.(4 years ago during the hype and launch period of many KLCC developments this oversupply and yield issue was NOT OBVIOUS to the average buyer who bought the developers lines and never gave adequate thought to these issues.Frankly the purchaser didn't care as really they were only participating in the 'greater fool theory'.(If they could find a bigger sucker to sell to ,they didn't care about supply etc etc ..they just wanted to keep playing and then exit before the music stopped)..lol .Now that these blocks are finished the situation is transparent.Take a walk around KLCC at 9 pm and check the lights and the lack of them' on 'tells the story.

So ..bubble or no bubble ...does it really matter?..I just want a reasonable return on any investment and for the areas that interest me both in Malaysia and abroad I just don't see it.I think 2009 would have been a WONDERFUL buying opportunity which I had expected and waited for(in 2007 and 2008 to occur) BUT when it did finally occur the govt bailouts put a floor under price when it all started to come crashing down in late 2008.So the crash although it started, never really got going in most cases.Sure in Malaysia, KLCC dropped 20-40 % or more but IMO it would have collapsed if not for worldwide govt intervention.(Remember foreign govts were supporting some of the foreign buyers in their homelands who could easily have been forced sellers otherwise in Malaysia) .The question now is whether the floor is in both here and abroad and that is the real question.I say 'no' but time will tell.I still say we need a price reset .Just supporting prices falsely at unsustainable levels with oversupply and poor yields is of limited use.Look at Dubai.Ultimately the game was up and the drop started and turned into a waterfall!Lets also remember that talking of Dubai ,many KLCC and MK condos are owned by people from there.If they were a reason why prices went up in 2006 ,07 etc then surely they should be a reason prices will drop in 2010 etc as some become forced sellers.(If people from the Middle East were a big reason why prices went UP(and many agents loved to tell you so) then surely they have to be a catalyst for prices going DOWN now...agents don't like it when you tell them that though!..they just see up ,up and up..one has to love the agent stories you hear...lol and then lol again and lol again!In bubbles it is so much easier to sell overpriced real estate...the good old greater fool theory..lol

Diversify ....

1) Properties
2) Stock Market
3) Unit Trust
4) Gold
5) Businesses
6) Government bonds

etc

kim, what are your views on gold and silver? do you think they will do better than property in 2010?

Kalai

Briefly I am confused on G and S.In fact I sold all my gold mining stocks a few weeks back(Newmont,Barrick,GDX gold miners index).That doesn't mean I am negative on them I just am unsure on them and they had been profitable for me but seemed over extended so I sold out.One problem I have with gold is that it recently is trading inverse to the USD dollar(USD)...USD up and gold down or vice versa.So essentially in the short term(3 to 6 months) at a minimum I am a USD bull and because I am a $ bull short term I am struggling with this trade.I mean the USD had a great run a few weeks back(gold pulled back ) and the USD is now just consolidating IMO till it runs higher.The USD index is now forming a bull flag it seems to be in the shorter time _frame_ and looks ready to break up again.Even today I see gold trading off 1% and dollar index rallying(inverse again).When the consolidation is over and the USD rally continues ,which I believe it will,then if the negative correlation holds then gold should sell off again.That is my dilemma.

But let's be clear.I believe all fiat currencies are flawed and so gold I see as a good part of anyones investment portfolio.If one can afford it then frankly I think you should own some of it.I am saying that not because I believe in the inflation story but because I have no faith in the powers that be to sort this financial mess out.Gold is like an anti government hedge!!!!As I have no belief in the ability of Ben B,Gordon B,Tim G and all the other members of the PPT(plunge protection team)to take the necessary steps to address the debt issues in the world, by default gold looks excellent.The fact that we can still buy gold means probably we should own it.Lets remember in the 1930's Roosevelt confiscated gold in the US.Why not again when all these policies that aren't working unwind and the s..t really hits the fan?The politicians will do anything IMO to remain in power world wide(Malaysia is just a small player in this ponzi scheme)and in order to hedge oneself against their stupidity, frankly gold is probably a must own.You take an insurance policy out in case of a fire and gold is an insurance policy if a genuine financial unravelling occurs which I believe it will.(better safe than sorry)But I stress many people see gold today as an inflation hedge and it is, AND THEY MAY BE RIGHT, BUT I don't buy the inflation story BUT still I say GOLD IS GOOD(unlike paper which is flawed)as an insurance policy against govt stupidity which is rampant.Briefly lets remember that Tim G ,Ben B and Gordon B ,Alan G etc ..all of these so called experts NEVER admitted a bubble had formed in anything and never saw the fall out of it (which they didn't acknowledge anyway)as likely to occur in the manner it did.They said it was all a blip and contained.This is a FACT and very well documented in interviews ,congressional meetings etc etc...bottom line if they couldn't see it in the first place how can we expect them to fix it now.Honestly I adhere to the Austrian school of economics(Ludwig Von Mises etc)and so to me the whole Keynesian economic idea is flawed and will not work in the manner in which it has been implemented worldwide today .Like Japan for 20 years I say when the government steps aside this Ponzi is over and welcome back the double dip.(Till the system is cleansed and the debt repaid/destroyed we are going nowhere good!)

Anyway I am not concerned whether you buy my economic thoughts but I still say gold is good.I stress PHYSICAL gold is way better than paper gold like GLD ETF.As I said I sold all my miners but I will look to reenter those positions at some point on the basis of gold as an insurance policy .And if inflation takes off then another reason to own it .I am not a property bull and I am not concerned about inflation at this stage.Property always can have LOCAL factors that may make it worthwhile ...immigration,demographics etc etc but generally speaking if I look at supply,multiples of income to price ,consumer debt levels,affordability etc worldwide I fail to see property as likely to appreciate.(Do you think the 100000+ condos in Dubai are going up!...extreme case but that kind of overpriced oversupply is everywhere from KLCC to Costa Del Sol!!...when money flows freely it is amazing what crazy excesses people take on...lol...!)

Anyway Kalai they are just a few thoughts.I guess my general mental position for 2010 is that capital preservation is more important than capital appreciation.In 2009 the water was held back so to speak but at same point in 2010 the dam will burst.So I am happy to buy a bit of gold and keep a few properties that I already own(in case I am wrong about inflation) but I do NOT believe this is a new bull run in ANYTHING(except maybe gold).The biggest reason is that we are already in the stratosphere so the likely trend is down not up..in the 80's interest rates were double digit and so the likelihood was for them to go down(good for property) NOT up like today.Incomes were rising NOT falling...debt levels were lower NOT higher...the list is long . I am in the deflationist camp generally speaking.Remember I lived in Japan for over 13 years during their bubble and I saw the excess and the blow up and then I saw a govt take on Keynesian economic theory and their attempt to spend for the consumer who was unable, as debt laden.It didn't work and the Nikkei fell from 39k to sub 8k 20 years later.Housing fell 50-80 % around Tokyo(remember the city with NO more land so prices CAN'T fall..what a BS argument that is that agents make!!)Anyway I will be happy to have a nett worth the same as what I have now at the end of 2010.Call me conservative but better safe than sorry.In 2009 I took the opportunity to rebalance my currency portfolio.When you own too much of the wrong currency and it devalues you can get killed!Now I sleep far better with a more balanced portfolio.Obviously if you are a believer in inflation then gold will do well and I am well aware of the whole printing too much money argument.(I counter that with the issue of velocity or lack of it.If money has no velocity then inflation is definitely not guaranteed.Anyway if you believe in inflation then gold is a good hedge.I guess my feeling this year is that not all investments pay off,like insurance when you never have a fire etc,so buying gold if nothing else lets you sleep well JUST IN CASE.)I just want to be safe this year.Markets have rallied,gold has had a good run and property in many places has retraced some of it's losses or is flat.Even if you are a bull ,nothing goes up in a straight line and bullishness is at 2007 peak levels and that is NEVER a good sign as the mass is usually wrong.

So gold is good but health is more important .Good luck for 2010.Presumably I partly answered your question on my feelings.

kim, you are a genius. i think i'll buy some gold. world looks uncertain right now.

Kalai and others..



As I noted above my problem with gold is that I am bullish the USD and they are trading inverse for the moment.The USD,as stated in the first paragraph of my earlier post, has again confirmed my bullish view by breaking out of the patterns I look at and gold in my opinion is likely to sell off further and so I see gold and silver trading down as a result.I see gold at least going down to 1025(if 1075 doesn't hold)-1075 range and silver probably revisiting it's 200 day MA level around 15.30 today but this is a rising MA, that is rising daily, so probably 15.50 ish when it gets there.IF it gets there of course.Personally I use stop losses but my point is that in the short term I stick with my long USD trade as it has confirmed my bullish view and hence gold and silver possibly falling down to the levels I indicated.Should they get down there then it is time to review again.Should my targets be reached it is quite a fall to still come.

But as I stated above in my first post I still look at gold as an insurance policy and so ,if one has the funds ,then a % of funds in gold seems prudent to me in a very uncertain world.Again I would go with physical gold as frankly the counter party risk of ETF's is a problem in my view.Anyway one can buy the ETF(exchange traded fund)GLD or the gold miner ETF GDX is another way of playing gold (the miners are really just a leveraged play on gold)...or go short them of course, if one believes they are going down.There are also many short gold funds you can buy....(a few ETF's that one could investigate are GLD,GDX,GDXJ,SLV,DGP,DZZ...these are all some sort of long or short play on gold or silver).At the moment I personally am looking to pick up NEM (Newmont Mining which is large cap miner)if its decline continues to more attractive levels.I sold this when it was in the 50's and am hoping to pick it back up in the early 40's if it gets there...even the 200 day MA looks a start to me.Anyway I trade so I always have stops etc in place should the trade go against me.

The above is not a recommendation to buy or sell a stock but just a point of view for educational purposes.

The subject is what will property do in 2010.Well after this week in the stock market I would say extremely poorly.I am interested in Elliot Wave theory.EW essentially breaks stock market moves down into impulsive 5 wave structures with the trend and reflexive 3 wave retracements against the trend...anyway I am sure this is of no interest to most people of this blog BUT what should be of interest is that EW has looked at this recent stock rally as a corrective wave 2 or b retracement..anyway the point is that many EW practitioners believe that this corrective B wave or P2 wave, bear market rally from March 2009 ,has finished...yes I repeat just finished.So you are asking what does that mean.What it means is that after the wave 2 retracement that we just had from March 2009, we now enter wave 3 DOWN(which subdivides again into 5 waves).That according to EW theory is devastating.That is what some EW 'ers believe we have just entered this week.The theory is that wave 3 declines are the strongest trend down(MUCH stronger than the wave 1 decline from 2007 to March 2009)Bottom line if you thought the sell off from 2007 through 2008 was bad then according to EW you have seen nothing yet.Wave 3 will wipe you out .So what is the point of this stock market talk.Well we all know that if the market tanks then property will face an uphill battle and that is exactly why I believe property will struggle,IF this is infact wave 3 down then watch out below and IMO property will be in for a very bad year.As I said wave 3's are devastating and property will not fair well if this is the GENUINE wave 3.To be honest many people have tried to call the start of wave 3 down in the market and most got it wrong but so far this is looking like the start of wave 3.It takes time to really be certain but if it is then IMO property will have no chance this year.Remember the end of 2008, well that was wave 3 down of WAVE 1 and that scared everyone.Wave 3 of Primary wave 3 will make that earlier 2008 period look like a kid's paddling pool!

So although I am in no way a property bull due to fundamental reasons like present worldwide consumer and govt debt levels,increasing interest rates,unemployment levels,oversupply factors etc I also am aware that the stock market plays an important part in consumer psychology and so influences property.In Jan and Feb 2009 there were no buyers around where I look but as the stock market rallied a few came out to buy and now many think this is boom time again.Well if WAVE 3 has started then we are going back to 2009 Feb situation of no buyers due to fear of what tomorrow will bring.EW is the work of Ralph N Elliot(in 1930's he published his works I believe) and really is the study of CROWD BEHAVIOR .Furthermore this primary wave 3 down will not be over in a couple of months..one would assume years...WAVE 1 lasted from 2007 peak to March 2009 and WAVE 3 cannot be the shortest wave!So if EW is correct then this will be a multi year stock market decline and therefore a very tough time for property too.Frankly I would say a bear market for property too if shares enter a multi year decline.The big question though is has Primary wave 3 (or C)started.Many say 'yes'.Time will tell.I should stress that EW is still studied today and forms a part of most stock market technicians analysis .Most people don't understand it well but nevertheless for those that do they will tell you take note of wave structure.So sorry guys ,there is nothing good in the Elliot wave tea cup for property in 2010 till probably 2012/13 at the earliest.But the good news is that when this pattern is over bargains should be all round...like 1932,42,82 you should be looking at stocks with single digit price/earning ratios and similar high dividend yields...and if stocks are priced like that then no doubt property yields will be high also and purchase prices will represent excellent value unlike the nonsense on offer today.So I will get my cash ready and wait.Bring on Wave 3 is my mantra!

Kim, and I'm convinced you are not a woman, you really do know how to write nonsense.

This EW stuff is just silly. You get all these crazy theories all the time. Chartists basically talk rubbish and there is no proven chart strategy that works for a reasonable period (because once people find out then everyone starts trading off the back of it which means that the anomaly goes).

Now you write long posts but nothing makes sense. Keep it simple so everyone can understand rather than trying to impress or confuse everyone with terms such as B or P2 waves.

Malaysia's property market is looking very healthy for 2010. It's had a solid start. Agents seem to be doing well, deals are closing quickly, there is a lot of confidence in the market.

Personally I'm going to buy property in Malaysia this year, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. We'll let Kim stash all his (or is it her) wealth in gold waiting for the 99% fall in price he (or is it she?) predicts. You'll be waiting a long time! And good luck.

Are you sure you're not some buyer trying to bring down the market so you can snap up some good deals?

In fact I met a friend a few weeks ago and believe it or not she had read your posts and thought they were good. She was thinking of buying property but was a little put off by you, not that she really understood what you were saying. It seems as though you're becoming quite famous - people must be falling for your complicated jargon.

mmm............ it's still profitable to invest in real estate when there's fire sale......!


but i don't think it's advisable investing in KL area..... there's already oversupply of condo & office space.....

Alex

From one writer of nonsense (as you put it)to another writer of nonsense, yourself, I suggest you make sure you fully understand Elliot wave theory and chart technical analysis before you make some uninformed decisions about its usefulness.You may learn something.Both EW and chart analysis is really just about understanding crowd psychology and that is the basis of market behavior in ANY market.(stock ,property etc).If you can understand both, then I and others believe you will have an edge in the market place.I endeavored to indicate the basis of EW theory and the beginning of a Wave 3 decline and what it meant for markets in general.I certainly was not trying to be complicated in my post above.EW is essentially about wave structure of markets and each of these waves also has a particular crowd mood attached to it.The completed wave 2 retracement that we have just had is a classic wave 2 .It turns skeptical bears like everyone we had at the wave one bottom in March 2009 into bulls .Sentiment is at an extreme.Bullish percent indicators show low bearish readings similar to the 2007 peak now ,prior to the decline back then .There are essentially NO bears left!.No one thinks this market goes down and you are one of them.Bullishness is everywhere and the crowd thinks we are back to party time and growth and bubble mentality is in.That is where we are now.Bears are few on the ground and optimism is here.This is the typical state of things at a wave 2 peak.The wave structure is also such that we have satisfied that wave count.If so then wave 3 has potentially started.(Not all EW theorists agree on this and I state that quite clearly in my earlier post.This may NOT be the beginning of wave 3 and it will take some time to know if that is the case.)Again really charting and EW is about trying to understand CROWD PSYCHOLOGY and that is no crazy theory.You can't change peoples behavior and charts just are maps of peoples behavior really.If you understand crowd psychology you can understand how everyone got taken to the cleaners by Bernie Madoff and Charles Ponzi!!!Crowds repeat the same behavior year after year,decade after decade.No one learnt from the Ponzi scheme debacle ,because crowd behavior doesn't change and so Bernie Madoff took another lot to the cleaners last year decades after Charles Ponzi pulled the same trick!.

I have kept it simple IMO .Books are written about EW and charting etc and I summed it up in a paragraph so I couldn't have written it much simpler .I will try to be more monosyllabic for you next time.I am sure most readers can understand my posts perfectly well.Of course they may not agree with my thoughts but different opinions are what makes up a society .It seems that you want to live in some kind of dictatorship where people cannot express alternative views .I am not a property bull like you .So what!There are enough people like you on this site and in the real estate industry in general or posted articles here to drown out any bearish sentiment that I espouse.I am just a realist and not a dreamer.Everyone should do their analysis and make their own decision.

Back to the topic.As I said wave 2 is about optimism.Therefore it is no surprise that some people are buying and some deals are getting done as you indicate.YOU,Alex Winter , have nailed wave 2 psychology in your own post!..and you are going to buy property also you said....it is about bullishness and you are the PERSONIFICATION of a property /stock market bull.You represent the CLASSIC mind set at a wave 2 top.You are the poster boy!In March you were probably skeptical and worried (I would put money on it) but now you are a bull seeing green lights all round.You are a Wave 2 Top Indicator.

My posts are not specifically about Malaysia which is obvious .The world markets are interconnected and especially now most markets essentially rise and fall in tandem with a bit of out performance here and there.Most markets bottomed in March and rallied and here we are today (well a week ago) with most markets worldwide making new highs for this run up.In 3 days we are nearly back to mid October levels on the US indices as one would expect in a wave 3 decline.Wave 3's are exactly like this.Three months of gains given back in 3 days!!).They are impulsive and vicious and this POTENTIALLY is the start.I stress that not all EW technicians believe this is a wave 3 decline YET.Most believe it is coming but whether this is it ,is up for dispute.I am VERY clear on this point.EW and charting is not MY theory.Every major bank in the world would have a technical charting department because it is respected.Maybe a bank may make a fundamental decision on buying ABC company stock but in many cases I am aware of ,will run the idea by the technician and so it is part of the decision process.

Many of my earlier posts set out my numerous reasons why I am not a property bull .I particularly am relatively bearish on areas relying heavily on foreign clients.But I acknowledge that many areas in Malaysia have good fundamentals and will be fine.Fine is a relative term of course.When I say fine ,I still believe the world economy is in trouble and so if a large multinational tech company in X place fire 1000 people from some factory then those local people will probably be in trouble with their mortgages etc and this will no doubt have consequences for the values in their block if many go into default etc.One reason why I remain so negative on the world economy is because of debt levels ,both private and public/sovereign.

Gold.I stated quite clearly I sold out of my gold miners and now am watching with interest as they have pulled in nicely but as I said I still see gold as an insurance policy regardless whether it goes up or down.The world is uncertain and if one has plenty of spare cash then why not invest 5% in gold in a diversified portfolio.No one has a crystal ball and as each week goes by we get another sovereign debt issue..Greece ,Iceland and Dubai so far but there are so many basket cases out there who knows where this ends.(Dubai...hmmm...that was one reason why KLCC was hot because the Arabs were buying right..that was one agent line I heard ...well if they were buying when Dubai was hot then surely they could be sellers when Dubai is a property disaster zone...surely you must see that logic ..the Arabs who bought 100's or 1000's of condos in KL do not matter now?I guess that is your view.Of course they matter!.)

Who is predicting 99% fall in price that you mention?NOT me.Now that is nonsense!

This blog is full of bulls.I am probably one of the few skeptical people on this blog.If you don't want to read my posts because they are too long then don't.You'd be doing me a favour.Frankly I only post because I think that genuine property buyers should at least be aware of some of the negatives out there and for sure most agents won't tell them anything bearish.In 2005/6/7/8 I don't recall any agent saying to my friends don't buy because the market is going to fall 20-50 % as it did in many cases around KLCC in late 2008/2009.No they said KLCC is cheap compared to Hong Kong and you can't go wrong because you can rent for RM 5/6/7 per sqft etc..all proven ..I stress proven to be essentially nonsense in so many cases.I saved two friends millions each.They both wanted to buy a particular condo at RM 1700 per sft in KLCC and there were transactions at that and even higher prices in 2007/8 in this particular case.Due to listening to me they put off buying and were able to buy in Feb this year for around 850 per sft on a higher floor in the same block!!!!!!!As the size of the apartment was close to 3000 sq ft they nearly saved RM 3 million..i don't hear of sellers refunding buyers millions who bought overpriced properties or agents giving some of their commissions to unfortunate purchasers who are now in trouble .My friends are very satisfied with my cautious comments .Think about how many years it would have taken to pay back that extra saving.I saved them maybe a decade or more of loan repayments!!But no one else said to them it was a bad deal and I never forced them to listen to me.I just gave them the cautious side of the argument.

Property is the biggest single investment most people will make in their lifetime and so IMO all buyers should collate ALL views prior to making an informed decision.I am one lone voice against 999 property bulls on this site.I simply present some general thoughts on issues out there and my thoughts particularly on property around KLCC etc but I also acknowledge there are areas with solid fundamentals and demographic changes etc that make it a good investment .Half of my posts are as much about the economic state of the world and issues I see out there, and there likely knock on to the property market in general worldwide.My thoughts are in no way just Malaysia specific.The average citizen in the world is so laden down with debt that there is no way that the world going forward will be like the world in years gone by.People /governments spent decades of future profits that have vanished and now they are just left with the debt bill to pay back.The future is just not going to be like the good old days!

One can buy property in a SECOND but they will pay it off over a LIFETIME.And a lifetime is a long time, so make good THOUGHTFUL decisions is my advice to all prospective buyers .

Lastly,this site has male and female readers .Why are you so sexist?Man /woman .What is the point ?Who cares ?We are all equals.I hope lots of the numerous smart and educated females on this site have something to say to you about that.In a world with many female Prime Ministers,professionals and company CEOs that is a really narrow minded view you have there.This is about exchange of views and nothing else.I have no time for people with any kind of sexist attitude..Do me a favor and don't read my posts so I don't have to reply to your dribble.

i will leave you with one point which makes it clear that you really do not make any sense, but just say things that sound good. i think if there is one thing that people who read your posts need to understand it is that.

you have said that i am sexist. and you have said that as confidently as you say everything else.

a sexist is someone who believes one of the sexes is inferior or discriminates against one of the sexes. i was simply curious to know if i was debating with a man or a woman. and for that you call me a sexist!

it's like you telling me you had a baby, and me asking if it was a boy or a girl, and then you telling me i'm a sexist for asking.

given that all your arguments are Based around such weak arguments, given that you are so touchy, and also given you have asked me not to reply to your posts, let's draw this debate between us to a close.

best of luck and wish you best for the future.

(everyone reading this, relax, the world will survive and 2010 will be a good year for Malaysian property - high stock market is already up the market).

For everyone except kim.

http://thinkproperty.com.my/realestate/ThinkBlog/0/Property-Market-In-Malaysia-On-Upward-Trend.html

Mr Winter,

I never post at this site but after reading your recent posts I have made the effort today.

The article you have attached the link to states in it 'property prices driven by steady stock market'.Kim's recent posts ,which I religiously read ,clearly have numerous opinions and reasons for her property views but her recent posts which you clearly dislike above are about this very issue of the stock market and how 'if' Elliot Wave principles and chart patterns play out as she sets out then there will be property implications.She has often stated this point of the relationship of stocks to property without any reference to Elliot wave.She also notes that there is debate on the wave pattern but at the same time the fact that the US stock market has lost approx 3 months of gains in 3 days should be reason to be concerned.I am very concerned with my stock holdings after this recent sell off.Soon I imagine she is thinking that crowd psychology and herd behavior will take over and the resulting waterfall consequences.(I should add that my University degree was in psychology).

Is the property market so fragile that you are concerned about one alternative view?The article you post also touches on many of Kim's earlier points regarding the world economy,rising interest rate implications,unemployment and sentiment.This all has consequences for future crowd behavior and mind set.

Your posts state her theories are crazy,rubbish,nothing makes sense,weak arguments and that is all you offer Mr.Winter.You just understand abuse.You are a very arrogant person and shame on you Mr.Winter.They are not her theories.Are you suggesting Kim invented the whole study of economics?

People are just expressing their views and all you offer is abuse.Kim's posts are unbelievable and she is clearly a thoughtful thinker and we are lucky enough to read her posts here.She is obviously not selling anything to anyone .She is providing a public service in my mind so that people can see an alternative view.She has 'no flesh in the game'it seems.She is clearly not an agent or she would be trying to' pump and dump' no doubt like so many in the real estate business.Like yourself it would seem Mr.Winter.

I as one reader find your arrogance disgraceful and this is not the first time.Your arrogant attitude is as bad as a Goldman Sachs banker collecting TARP funds or some kind of despotic ruler.

You say to her 'keep it simple'.What absolute arrogance.Do you think people who spend their life savings on property in many cases are illiterate idiots?I like many readers clearly understand her posts .Her posts are long because she clearly goes to great effort to set out her ideas clearly for everyone's benefit.It is irrelevant whether people agree with her or not.As she said, she is 1 person against 999 property bulls on this site.Lets be honest Mr.Winter ,this site is nothing more than one massive bull cheer leading show for the benefit of the real estate industry.There is no balance offered on this site from what I can see.

You are lucky you are not my husband Mr.Winter.The only good thing about this blog are her interesting posts.Yours are nothing more than a few lines of abuse.

Keep it up Kim and I hope other people are supportive of her excellent posts.I can read bullish stories provided by the real estate business anywhere in any newspaper and I certainly don't need to visit this site to hear those , but I want a balanced view and so I am very appreciative of her insights.

Frankly I hope Kim can provide us with an alternative place to hear her views so we don't have to encounter your arrogance Mr.Winter.

Ann White

KL,Malaysia

Ann

Unlike yourself, I am not saying anyone shouldn't post. Kim can continue to post. That's her right.

The post where I gave a link wasn't supposed to prove my point. This thread is about the Outlook for 2010 property market. So people interested in this topic would also be interested in one opinion on the outlook for 2010. It seems as though you are reading far too much into all my emails (and want to assume the worst).

And as for abuse. I'd say the only abuse we've had is from yourself and Kim. You have called me arrogant (what have I ever called you?), and Kim called me a sexist (because I asked if she was actually a man).

I agree with you that these forums are a good way to get real information, which is why I use them. By getting stuck in you hear different views. The general media do hype everything up. But that doesn't mean the bearish view that Kim has is correct. What you are suggesting is that just because I don't agree with you, I keep quiet. No. By eliminating the views that oppose you means you won't get that balanced view.

My argument is simple, and if you don't like the views of a simple person and want to know all about EW charting then it's fine. By the way, I have informally studied charting (but never heard of EW before) and I have given good reasons why I believe it doesn't work (see earlier posts). There are a lot of people who think of chartists as a waste of time, including myself. You may note that Warren Buffet is not a chartist. He looks at fundamentals, which is what I try to look at.

Malaysia has been well insulated from the troubles of the US so far, and while I do believe the US may enter into a double-dip due to the effects of the pump-priming that has happened (we don't know the affects as no government in the world has ever done it to the magnitude the US has, so I wouldn't be surprised if it ended in total disaster), I think that that Malaysian property market will remain robust at the least, and will perform well at best. Property works in long cycles, typically lasting 5-15 years. From the data we have, and the sentiment out there in the market, it would seem as though we had a trough in 2009, and we should look forward to better times ahead. Malaysia's economy is growing, population is growing, and is attracting a lot of foreign investment because of its easy foreign ownership rules and that all bodes well for property in Malaysia. And it seems to be a good time in the cycle.

I have not mentioned before but my biggest concern for Malaysian property is that interest rates in the US rocket northwards, Malaysian being loosely pegged has to follow, and the Malaysian property market goes into reverse due to the sudden increase in interest rates.

And yes, regarding all of this, I could be wrong. The future is very difficult to predict.

I believe Ann White, Alex Winter and Kim Massey are THE SAME PERSON ....

Everyone, just ignore their "signature" long posts .....

Ha! I'm not the same person as Kim or Ann.

But as for Kim and Ann being the same person, it's possible. But why would Kim reply as Ann?

And Detective Soehardy if you bothered to check most of my posts are short - Kim writes long posts - but when Kim raises 10 different points I can't answer with a two line post.

Gosh, can somebody summarize what these 3 ppl is talking about?

Oh my God! Investing becomes so difficult and complicated with all the amount of research that you have done. I hope it is made easier, but most people invest with their intuition isn't it?

Maybe I should start compiling all the posts you 3 people has written, you will be amazed a book will be produced and credited to your names.

Now sexist, arrogant, and my admitedly cheeky behavious aside, I think we should look at this matter seriously.

I have attached (well I am trying to attach, let's see if it works) an article which actually agrees in summary with Kim.

I think it is well argued, and when I said that we could go into a double dip, it's this reasoning (and not Kim's) that convinces me.

in the previous forum in 2009 , i have point out the important investment in share , Gold and Australian property.

most of the share blue chip share has double up. BHP 20 dollars in ..now 40 selling. NOT to mention , the money i

make from foreign currency !!!! i did change to AUd from 2.80 to 2.40 ..and now i can change at 3.00 !!!

Since the Global Financial Crisis, Australia has avoid the recession and property has soften a bit , but nevertheless due to strong migration , population growth and robust economy , most of the property price has increase 5-20% .

The place i have invest is Frankston , Thornlie, Parkwood, New Castle . u can check the price graph from www.realestate.com.au

Property is the safest investment and most of the richest people made money from it...because land is scare and u cant create land . even though there is a bubble but if u can hold it for long term , u will definitlely reap the rewards not only to the capital growth but the increasing rent it will give you.

Dont wait till the price is getting higher cos inflation eats ur money and everyone is borrowing money to invest.

Lately, Desa Parkcity property extremely high... up 20-30% in 2-3 months, and i dun see any sign of coming down, i believed NOT. what is the limit? and i shifted my attention to SeiraMas, valencia and Selayang-Rawang. i believed 2010 is a good year 4 property, still... prosperous 4 all agents and property investors.