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TOPIC: Property Bubble

Re:Property Bubble 8 months ago #19772

so the question remains, are we inside property bubble now or are we building one big bubble now, looking at the current situation in central region (KL-Selangor)?

Re:Property Bubble 8 months ago #19787

Hi guys,

Does anyone know of any books out there that discuss the phenomenon of property bubbles? Recent ones especially, like one that covers the current worldwide bubbles in some countries since the US recession of 2009. It would be good to see what the trend is worldwide, that would be an indication to what can happen locally.


Thanks.
Last Edit: 8 months ago by helpdesk.

Re:Property Bubble 8 months ago #19793

  • raymo26
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Bubble burst to me is like this.
Demand for property will always be there as we humans need roof over our head.
But demand to own a property drops when people can no longer afford to purchase any property anymore.

Here's the illustration.
House RM 300,000
Bank Loan 70% (RM210,000)
Differential sum will be like RM90,000
If include S&P and Loan Agreement fees, probably will add RM20,000

Meaning Purchaser needed RM110,000 CASH to buy a property.
If Purchasers don't have that amount of money, technically the demand will drop.

Banks plays an important roll in this economics of property. Now bank still giving loans up to 90%.
When the bank starts to slash their loan amount, Purchaser will have to fork out more money to buy any property.
So the time now is crucial to get a property or else when time is better the next time, prices will be higher by then.

Re:Property Bubble 7 months, 4 weeks ago #19795

Raymond.

Good, neat and nice example. I think 2 jalans to look into it.

Jalan 1 - First Roof
If you don't have your first roof, it's better now than never. Of course buy within your financial capability i.e. not than 30% exposure of total household income (combined for couples). This doesn't not include the commitment for car, kids (if any) education and other expenses. It's becoming very expensive regardless \"in\" the bubble or bubble \"starting\", so if really can afford, buying to stay is the best thing to do now.

Jalan 2 - For investment
I am not sure about this, but most properties at high side now in Klang Valley and rental yield also less than 4% and some even less than 3%! What's more the talk about flipping it? So, shall we wait and wait and wait until the bubble burst, which we dont know when, and then buy the deflated price? Would be laughing all the way to buy negative equity house but I doubt so, coz most Malaysian (IMO) are rich people that got holding power and can withstand the property bubble burst effect.

So the conclusion for now (my opinion) is wait...what do you all think?
Appreciate your honest opinion for sharing and learning.

Re:Property Bubble 5 months, 2 weeks ago #19998

Property Bubble?

If you have just sold your property recently, you will want to say, 'Yes, there's a bubble formed.' And if you have recently missed the 2010 property bullrun, or have no property in hand, you will say the same too. On the other hand, if your are still holding on to 5 houses, 10 shoplots and booked 15 SOHOs in the recent launch, you will say, 'Bubble?? Where got? Yah meh?'

As for me, the term 'bubble' should not be simply used. It was once mentioned by Warren Buffet initially to describe the stock market movement in US in 2007, which was in 'overbuy' position. Now, since the DOW had plunged, and the real estate in US had fare so badly, any slightest price rise people will use the word 'bubble' to describe it.

Well to me, as long as there are people aware of 'property bubble' and be cautious of the current situation, and do not buy madly, i guess there's no bubble formed yet (not because I'm owning several mil worth of property currently). Well, in Malaysia, I'm yet to see any 'bubble' formed in our property market, yet. The one that happenned in 2009 was not a bubble, but just some kinda panic selling and that's it. Those Malaysian 'investors' were just over speculating, trying to equate the situation in Malaysia as that to US.

After a session of dicussion with my friend, my friend and I finally come to a simple definition on the term 'property bubble'. Property Bubble --> A situation whereby people need to sell their house to sustain their living.

So, is there a 'Property Bubble' in Malaysia? For me to know, for you to find out.

Re:Property Bubble 5 months, 2 weeks ago #20003

Bubble exist in all type of investment vehicles including properties. Bubble is positive because the price is incresing. Bubble is negative when it burst. That why Singapore goverment cooling down the real estate market and Singapore investors invest in Malaysia Property: Overseas investors benefiting from M’sian property market
Last Edit: 5 months, 1 week ago by helpdesk.
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